The Super Bowl Is Over When This Happens

Getty Images

Former Giants receiver David Tyree.

After an interminable wait for Super Bowl XLVI, we should get a good idea who's going to win very quickly.

The team that scores first in the Super Bowl has won nearly two-thirds (64%) of the time. Whoever leads at halftime has a 79% win probability. Late comebacks like the Giants over the Patriots in Super Bowl XLII have happened just two other times.

But one of the biggest keys of all is turnovers. Teams that win the turnover battle come out on top 92% of the time.

What to Watch for

The odds that a team will win the Super Bowl when the following events occur, based on the previous 45 years of Super Bowl history:

Event	Odds of Winning
Win the coin toss	49% (22 of 45)
Score first	64% (29 of 45)
Gain the first play of 25-plus yards	58% (26 of 45)
Lead after the first quarter	68% (23 of 34)
Lead after the second quarter	79% (34 of 43)
Lead after the third quarter	84% (37 of 44)
Lead midway through the fourth quarter	95% (40 of 42)
Average more yards per pass play	78% (35 of 45)
Win the turnover battle	92% (33 of 36)

Source: Stats LLC

Interactive: NFL Playoff 2012 Dossiers

View Interactive